Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4856 · ELP → AUS
departs 12:20 PM MT · arrives 2:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.