Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4856 · ELP → AUS
departs 10:20 AM MT · arrives 12:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at ELP that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.