Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4856 · ELP → AUS
departs 11:10 AM MT · arrives 1:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
11am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.