Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4856 · ELP → AUS
departs 12:20 PM MT · arrives 2:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at ELP that day
↓
12pm departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.