Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4876 · SAN → TUS
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.