Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4880
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4880 · STL → MSP
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.