Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4886 · DEN → LGA
departs 6:15 AM MT · arrives 11:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 5%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.