Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4886 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4886 · DEN → LGA

departs 6:15 AM MT · arrives 11:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DEN are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4886 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?