Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4904
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4904 · ORF → BWI
departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 10:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.