Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 4904 · ORF → BWI

departs 10:05 AM ET · arrives 11:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

↓ 10am departures from ORF are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.56 in

BWI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4904 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?