Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 490 · BNA → DAL
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 52%
Sat 10/3 24%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±8 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.