Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 490 · BNA → DAL

departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 8:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±7 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.39 in

DAL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 490 · BNA → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?