Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4921
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4921 · LAX → SMF
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 54%
Sat 10/3 22%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
37%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.