Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4922
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4922 · MCO → ATL
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.