Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4922 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4922 · MCO → ATL

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4922 · MCO → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?