Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 492 · TPA → MKE
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.