Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4934 · SMF → LGB
departs 7:35 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 30%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LGB that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.