Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4949 · MSY → ATL
departs 3:20 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 64%
Mon 10/5 41%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.