Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4953 · OAK → SNA
departs 8:30 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
↓
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.