Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 495 · HNL → KOA
departs 8:35 PM HT · arrives 9:30 PM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 6%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
KOA is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
KOA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.