Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4980
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4980 · SAT → TPA
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 34%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.