Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5069
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 5069 · MCI → BNA
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from MCI are often late
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.