WN 512 · AUS → ECP

departs 12:36 PM CT · arrives 2:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
23%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into ECP at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

ECP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 512 · AUS → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?