Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 542 · BNA → JAX
departs 1:40 PM CT · arrives 4:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.