Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 542 · BNA → JAX
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.21 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.