Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 586 · LAS → LIT
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 10%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LIT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.