Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 636 · SEA → SMF
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 11:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
35%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.