Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 649 · PIT → RSW
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 24%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
Arrivals into RSW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.