WN 696 · BNA → RDU

departs 5:12 PM CT · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 696 · BNA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?