Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 768
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 768 · BWI → BUF
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.