Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 858 · BWI → ALB
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 34%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ALB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.