Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 3412 · EWR → DTW
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 16%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.