Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3412 · EWR → DTW
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.