Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3412 · EWR → DTW
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 2.72 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.