Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 3422 · SDF → ORD
departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 7:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.