YX 3436 · EWR → MCI

departs 2:47 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3436 · EWR → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?