YX 3473 · EWR → RDU

departs 9:01 AM ET · arrives 10:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3473 · EWR → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?