YX 3518 · ORD → CLT

departs 2:17 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.76 in

CLT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3518 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?