Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3585 · IAD → IND
departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.