Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3585 · IAD → IND
departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.