Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3585 · IAD → IND
departs 5:23 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
0.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.