Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 3586 · EWR → DTW
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.