Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3588
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 3588 · EWR → TVC
departs 10:36 AM ET · arrives 1:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −25 pts in 24h
−25 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TVC that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TVC (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.