Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
YX 3643 · EWR → ROC
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.