Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3643 · EWR → ROC
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.