Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3643 · EWR → ROC
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±1 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at EWR that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.