Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3643 · EWR → ROC
departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 11:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.