Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4345
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 4345 · LGA → RIC
departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.