YX 4366 · DCA → LGA

departs 10:16 AM ET · arrives 11:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4366 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?