YX 4398 · DCA → CMH

departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4398 · DCA → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?