YX 4400 · DCA → TVC

departs 10:59 AM ET · arrives 1:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at TVC that day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TVC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4400 · DCA → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?